For years now, the number of vehicles manufactured and sold with manual transmissions have been declining.
Everything from automatic transmission dependability, fuel economy, shifting speed, and transmission technology have been blamed for the manual transmission’s decline. But are all of these things really to blame for the soon-to-be dead stick shift?
Well, yes and no.
Better technology almost always inevitably leads to the death of something that had been used previously, even if it isn’t a radical change.
Cassettes were replaced by CDs which have all but been replaced by downloadable content. Landline phones have been replaced by cell phones. Hulu, Netflix, and other streaming internet services are slowly replacing cable. The list goes on.
It’s easy to make an argument that more technologically advanced transmissions have led to more fuel efficient vehicles, which is very true. Some vehicles with an available manual gearbox receive EPA estimates of up to 4 and 5 miles per gallon less than the same vehicle equipped with a modern continuously variable transmission.
Even for an enthusiast car buyer, unequivocal data proves that shift times, and therefore acceleration, can be greatly improved with the shift speeds of modern dual-clutch automatic transmissions.
Though all of these are legitimate arguments to explain the demise of the manual transmission, I don’t believe any one of them is the biggest reason for the manual’s extinction.
The real reason that manual transmission vehicles aren’t selling is because up-and-coming drivers don’t know how to use them and don’t want to know how to use them.
Let me explain…
The new crop of 15, 16, 17, and 18 year olds that are ready to learn how to drive have three options for doing so: They learn how to drive their parent’s car, they have to buy or have a vehicle bought for them, or they don’t want to learn to drive at all.
We will take out the third option for now, and you can read more about that by clicking HERE to see why young would-be drivers aren’t picking up the keys like they used to.
So, that leaves the first two options.
If new drivers learn how to drive their parents’ vehicle, chances are, it’s going to have an automatic transmission. Because the number of vehicles with manual transmissions have been on the decline for so many years, even a vehicle that’s 10 year old now would most likely still have an automatic transmission.
Additionally, most families are going to have family sedans, SUVs, or minivans which are not made with manual transmissions in great numbers to begin with. The result is that a new driver is nearly forced to learn how to drive a vehicle with an automatic transmission.
The second option is that a new driver buys a vehicle themselves or receives one from their parents. The 10 year rule mentioned above still applies in this situation. In other words, it’s hard to find a 1999 Ford Taurus for sale now, not because there weren’t many made, but because not many have lasted for 20 years.
Even if we push to find vehicles from 15 years ago, the majority would still have automatic transmissions. They are just harder to find… period.
So, regardless of whether or not a vehicle is just cheap or whether a new driver themselves buys a vehicle versus their parents, one would very nearly need to intentionally seek out a vehicle with a manual transmission to actually find one.
Few new drivers have that desire. They are comfortable with continuing with what they know, they want to drive less than ever before, and therefore, they want to make the experience as easy as possible for themselves.
Not only that, but many parents are unwilling to take the time to teach their new students how to drive a manual transmission, or they don’t know how to drive a stick themselves.
Always remember that trends and technology evolve, but if the consumer is willing to buy it, somebody will always make it regardless of whether or not it is actually better.
Manual transmissions give greater vehicle control to the driver, they are easier and much cheaper to maintain and repair, and they make a vehicle much more engaging to drive. Despite this, comfort, economy, and technology are winning the fight over control, affordability, and engagement.
So, the next time you see an article claiming that the manual transmission is dying because of fuel economy regulations, evolving technology, or a better driving experience from the latest automatic transmissions, just remember that if 50% of buyers actually wanted to drive a vehicle with a manual transmission, manufacturers would make them, regardless of how “good” automatics have become.
